Global recovery to pressure IP address pool

A resilient Asia Pacific ICT sector and high penetration rates for mobile Internet devices globally are two standout factors in IP address allocations in 2009, according to a new report.

“2009 in Review -the IP Address Registry Perspective”, is a new report by Mr Geoff Huston, Chief Scientist at the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC), the IP address registry for the Asia Pacific region.

According to the figures released, 2009 was a dynamic time for Internet number resources despite the global economic downturn. Key building blocks of the Internet, Internet Protocol (IP) addresses, provide an indication of Internet growth trends and network maturation within an economy.

Mr Geoff Huston, a globally recognized expert on IP address consumption, explains that although address consumption was down 5% on 2008 figures, current projections that the central IANA pool of unallocated IPv4 addresses could be exhausted as early as late next year, indicate a continuing need for IPv6 deployment.

“New Internet services – whether they be wired or wireless – need IP addresses, and looking at how many addresses have been allocated and to which economy, can provide a perspective of where the Internet is growing and how quickly,” said Mr Huston.

New allocations performed during 2009 represent the equivalent of approximately 5% of the total IPv4 address space available.

“Conventionally, news of impending exhaustion of addresses would motivate some form of a last minute rush for addresses. This is not visible so far. The industry has been acting in a very calm and considered manner in terms of address demands,” said Mr Huston.

Of the 190.1 million IPv4 addresses allocated during the year, just under half (45.87%) were allocated in the Asia Pacific, with China consuming more IPv4 addresses than any other economy.

“Nearly a quarter of the address space allocated in 2009 went to China,” explained Mr. Huston. “This is indicative of a significant expansion in broadband and wireless services led by the major telco and mobile operators there.”

Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Australia also showed strong growth.

Mobile Internet
In maturing markets, which already have high home broadband penetration, mobile Internet devices are still fuelling continued growth.

“The USA was allocated 38 million addresses in 2009,” said Mr Huston. “Considering it is already well connected, with approximately 74% of the population already using Internet services, the continued consumption of IPv4 addresses points to emerging new markets there,” he said.
These new markets appear to be led by mobile Internet services, headlined by technologies such as Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android platforms.”

A similar picture of strong growth in mobile Internet services is evident in Australia
(2.6 million new IPv4 addresses in 2009), Canada (2 million), and the Netherlands (2 million) all of which have a mature wired broadband market where 70% -85% of the population are already Internet users.

IPv6 Address Allocation
With IPv4 exhaustion approaching in as little as 18 months, an increase in the allocation of the new address protocol, IPv6, is growing.

Due to the size of the IPv6 address space, trends are taken from the number of allocations, rather than the address space allocated. Within the Asia Pacific region, Australia and Japan showed the highest level of activity in 2009. Australia received 52 new IPv6 allocations and Japan 32.
“The message on IPv6 deployment is spreading, with a global increase in the number of economies now with IPv6 resource holdings increasing by 17%,” said Mr Huston.

Local economies with IPv6 address allocations for the first time in 2009 include Brunei, Cook Islands, Micronesia, New Caledonia, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu.

Future Outlook
“The Internet is now an integral part of the portfolio of economic activity in all economies,” said Mr Huston. “With a rebuilding of local economies we will see a return to a greater level of pressure for further growth in the Internet, particularly in mobile services and the emergence of ubiquitous Internet environments,” he said.

As the Internet expands in the coming years, IPv6 is expected to take a prominent role. It may be possible that the number of IPv6 allocations in 2010 will exceed the number of IPv4 address allocations for the first time.

“Using IPv6 will enable the Internet to continue to grow to millions of times its current size while avoiding adding a level of complexity that would increase costs to network administrators,” said Mr Huston.

About APNIC
The Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC, pronounced A-P-Nic) is an open, membership-based, not-for-profit organization. It is one of five Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) charged with ensuring the fair distribution and responsible management of IP addresses and related resources, which are required for the stable and reliable operation of the global Internet.